Sen Zeng

I am a 4th-year economics Ph.D. candidate at Cornell University, I am also affiliated with the Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy at Cornell.

My research interests lie in the intersection of industrial organization and econometrics, with applications primarily in health economics.

I am supervised by Professor Francesca Molinari, Professor Levon Barseghyan, and Professor Colleen Carey.

E-mail: sz626@cornell.edu

Working Papers

Understanding the Demand-Side of an Illegal Market: Prohibition of Menthol Cigarettes
Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng
[PDF][NBER WP]
Abstract: The Food and Drug Administration has proposed to prohibit menthol cigarettes, which are smoked by almost 19 million people in the U.S. Illegal markets for menthol cigarettes could not only blunt the prohibition’s intended consequence to reduce smoking but could also lead to unintended consequences. We use data from a discrete choice experiment to estimate a mixed logit model which predicts that the prohibition of menthol cigarettes would substantially increase the fraction of menthol smokers who attempt to quit. However, our model also predicts a substantial potential consumer demand for illegal menthol cigarettes. Depending on the impact of illegality on product prices, our model predicts the potential demand-side of an illegal market for menthol cigarettes could be 59-92 percent the size of the status quo market if menthol e-cigarettes are legal, and 69-100 percent the size of the status quo market if menthol e-cigarettes are also illegal. Our mixed logit model estimated in willingness to pay space implies that the mean WTP to avoid an illegal retail market is equivalent to a tax of $8.44 per pack. In our partial cost-benefit analysis, the opportunity costs of prohibition exceed the value of the reduction in mortality risks from secondhand smoke by $15.4 billion annually.

Fear or Knowledge? The Impact of Graphic Cigarette Warnings on Tobacco Product Choices
Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng
[PDF][Online Appendix][NBER WP][Media: VoxEU]
Abstract: Requiring graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packaging has become a highly contentious unresolved legal battle. The constitutionality depends, in part, on the likely impact of GWLs on smoking decisions, and whether they generate knowledge as opposed to emotional reactions against smoking. Using an online discrete choice stated preference experiment we compare tobacco choices (cigarettes, e-cigarettes, quitting) for those presented with a GWL versus the currently existing label. We find the fraction of individuals choosing cigarettes to be lower and quitting higher for the GWL group. Our findings reveal that the differences between groups were primarily driven by the evocation of fear and disgust rather than an improvement in health knowledge related to the GWL. The discrete choice experiment also provides new evidence on how cigarette prices, e-cigarette prices, and policy-manipulable e-cigarette attributes such as e-cigarette warning labels, and flavor availability influence tobacco product choices.

Work in Progress

Aggregate Discrete Choice Demand Models with Unobserved Choice Sets

Demand for Stigmatized Products: The Case of Fukushima Rice
(with Satoru Shimokawa)

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Tobacco Regulations: Quantifying Internalities
(with Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios)

Just What the Doctor Ordered? The Benefits and Costs of E-Cigarette Regulation in Australia
(with Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang)

Cigarette and Heated Tobacco Product Use in Japan: The Role of Flavored Products
(with Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang)

Attention and Consideration in Discrete Choice Experiments
(with Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Hua Wang)

Publications

The Effect of Health Information on Smoking Intensity: Does Addiction Matter?
Sen Zeng, Satoru Shimokawa. (2019)
Applied Economics

Partial Smoking Ban and Secondhand Smoke Exposure in Japan
Sen Zeng, Haruko Noguchi, Satoru Shimokawa. (2019)
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health